Date: December 9, 2011

The pace of the U.S. economic recovery is faltering due in large part to lackluster job numbers, rising health care costs and the uncertainty surrounding the debt ceiling.

That's at least according to the 28th Annual Perryman Economic Outlook Conference. In a report released Friday in San Antonio, M. Ray Perryman noted that while the U.S. is likely to avoid a "double-dip" recession, some reduction in economic uncertainty is needed to convince investment funds to pump money back into the economy.

Job creation remained weak. Total nonfarm employment continued to build, though anemically, as 80,000 net jobs were added in October. The private sector added 104,000 jobs, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics . However, those gains were offset by losses from the public sector as the government has cut spending.

Other factors noted in the Perryman report:

• On Nov. 2, Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Ben Bernanke said the Fed had revised its outlook downward for the U.S. economy. The Fed's policies of keeping interest rats near to zero, extending the average maturity of Fed holdings and reinvesting principal payments back into the economy should provide some stimulus, but won't likely speed up the recovery.

• The U.S. recovery is being stalled because of the financial situation in Europe, the ongoing recovery in Japan and the unrest in the Middle East.

• A slow recovery in the U.S. housing market, credit-constraints on households and small businesses, and fiscal consolidation in all levels of government are also hampering recovery efforts.

The Perryman report indicates that Texas should continue to outperform the nation. Unemployment and weak housing markets remain an issue in some parts of the state. However, most regions have shown clear signs of improvement.

In the San Antonio-New Braunfels metropolitan statistical area, relatively strong growth is projected for the region. All industrial sectors are expected to see gains in jobs and economic output over the next few years. Between October 2010 and October 2011, total nonfarm employment in the area grew by 8,100 jobs.

The forecast for the 2011-2016 period is that the San Antonio area is projected to add 109,270 net new jobs. The services and trade sectors are expected to lead this charge.

Real gross product for the greater San Antonio area is expected to expand from $75.06 billion in 2011 to $91.85 billion in 2016 for a compound average growth rate of 4.12 percent. The population also is expected to expand from 2.16 million to 2.38 million for a compound average growth rate of 1.94 percent. Real personal income is expected to rise from $74.49 billion in 2011 to $92.87 billion in 2016 for a growth rate of 4.51 percent. Retail sales are projected to increase from $24.53 billion in 2011 to $30.56 billion in 2016. This is a growth rate of 4.49 percent.

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